TJ's Whidbey Island Collected Forecasts and Observations

Whidbey Island Observations and Predictions — Not much better than a crystal ball...
NWS Weather Simulation Model Forecasts all wind speeds in Knots.
10 knots → 11.5 mph → 18.5 kph

Recent Observations Forecasts Below

Tatoosh and Smith data last acquired Friday, Oct 14, 2016 at 11:42AM PDT
click here Tatoosh or Smith Islands for most recent obs. Usually, good West winds when Tatoosh is .03" (1 millibar) higher than Smith. (according to LW)
With Tatoosh at " and Whidbey NAS at " , the Tatoosh to Whidbey Island pressure difference is currently 0 in
Full Smith Island Report from NWS

Current Wind Readings at Ft. Ebey

The sensor ↑ is on a bluff just North of FtEbey

Current Wind Readings at Ft. Ebey

The sensor ↑ is just North of FtEbey

Current Wind Readings at Ft. Ebey

The sensor ↑ is just South of FtEbey at Perego's Bluff

Station	Time	Wind Speed	Wind Direction	Gusting to
Point Wilson	11:10 AM	36mph / 16m/s	S	45mph / 20m/s
Port Townsend 0 ft	11:00 AM	29mph / 13m/s	SE	39mph / 17m/s
Smith Island	11:00 AM	44mph / 20m/s	SE	48mph / 22m/s
Whidbey NAS	11:34 AM	36mph / 16m/s	SE	48mph / 22m/s
Race Rocks Bouy	11:00 AM	26mph / 12m/s	SE
Mesowest Bouy 46088	10:50 AM	29mph / 13m/s	SE	38mph / 17m/s

Note from El Diablo: "Keystone ferry, NAS Whidbey and Race Rocks data are virtually superfluous to the topic of whether Fort Ebey is, or will be, soarable. These are my own observations from twelve years and well over a thousand hours soaring there."
Jim Martyn (El Diablo) 2 miles north of Fort Ebey, along the bluff

Metars:

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Forecasts
RASP FORECAST SURFACE (10M) WIND MAPS(new ones posted early AM and mid evening when available) Small Animated loop
Full scale maps of the ten meter wind: | 8AM | 9AM | 10AM | 11AM | noon | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM | 7PM | 8PM
Sunsight 5:52 AM PDT Sunclipse 8:24 PM PDT

Whidbey NAS (MOS Forecasts last acquired fromhttp://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmav.pl?sta=KNUW and http://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmet.pl?sta=KNUW on Friday, Oct 14, 2016 at 11:42AM PDT)
Smith Island (MOS Forecasts last acquired fromhttp://www.fdtb.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/nammme.txt and http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/text/gfsmmg.txt on Friday, Oct 14, 2016 at 11:42AM PDT)
Whidbey Naval Air Station: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) from the NAM forecast KNUW.

NAM MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW   NAM Model run on   10/14/2016  at 1200UTC (-7  PDT)                      
Forecast Hour PDT   11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11PM  2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11PM  2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 11PM  5AM 
Wind Direction deg  140 160 190 190 150 140 130 130 120 130 130 140 140 160 150 140 140 140 130 130 140 
Forecast Wind kts    38  41  35  23  11  11  11  13  13  27  32  34  36  27  20  16  18  18  16  13  13 

GFS MOS Forecast for Whidbey Naval Air Station KNUW   GFS Model run on   10/14/2016  at 1200UTC (-7  PDT)                      
Forecast Hour PDT   11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11PM  2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11PM  2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 11PM  5AM 
Wind Direction deg  150 170 210 190 150 140 130 120 120 110 120 140 220 180 150 140 140 140 140 110 120 
Forecast Wind kts    31  38  40  22  12  11  11  12  15  20  32  39  36  23  18  17  21  19  13   5   5 


LAMP forecast for Whidbey NAS

Smith Island: Forecast Wind Speed (knots) and direction (azimuth) (N48.32 W122.84)

NAM MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1 NAM Model run on   10/14/2016  at 1200UTC (-7  PDT)                      
Forecast Hour PDT   11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|
Wind Direction dg   150 160 200 210 160 150 140 130 120 130 130 150 160 170 160 150 140 140 130 130 140 
Forecast Wind kts    44  49  38  24  15  15  15  18  21  34  45  46  47  33  26  20  23  21  19  18  20 
Forecast Wind kts10  42  47  36  22  14  14  14  17  20  32  43  44  44  31  24  19  22  20  18  17  19 
 
 GFS MOS Forecast for Smith Island SISW1  GFS Model run on   10/14/2016  at 1200UTC (-7  PDT)                      
Forecast Hour PDT   11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|2AM 5AM 8AM 11A 2PM 5PM 8PM 11P|
Wind Direction dg   150 180 230 200 160 150 130 120 110 120 120 160 220 180 140 140 150 140 140 110 110 
Forecast Wind kts    45  46  42  23  17  15  16  16  21  28  38  53  43  29  18  21  24  21  15  11   9 
Forecast Wind kts10  43  43  40  22  16  14  15  15  19  27  36  49  40  27  17  20  22  20  14  11   9

MOS forecasts last acquired Friday, Oct 14, 2016 at 11:42AM PDT

Below is the 24 hour LAMP Forecast — winds only. Click here for complete LAMP forecast for KNUW last accessed Oct 14 at 11:35AM PDT

KNUW WHIDBEY IS.NAS GFS LAMP GUIDANCE 10/14/2016 11:00 AM PDT Model Run
Hour	12PM	1PM	2PM	3PM	4PM	5PM	6PM	7PM	8PM	9PM	10PM	11PM	12AM	1AM	2AM	3AM	4AM	5AM	6AM	7AM	8AM	9AM	10AM	11AM	12PM
WDR
WSP	27	30	34	35	36	39	33	29	24	22	20	17	14	13	12	11	11	11	11	12	13	14	15	17	18

Tides Today at Ft. Ebey:
10/14 Fri 03:03 AM 6.57ft High Tide
10/14 Fri 08:37 AM 1.64ft Low Tide
10/14 Fri 03:30 PM 7.78ft High Tide
10/14 Fri 09:18 PM 1.38ft Low Tide
10/15 Sat 04:04 AM 7.07ft High Tide
10/15 Sat 09:24 AM 2.1ft Low Tide
10/15 Sat 04:01 PM 7.93ft High Tide
10/15 Sat 09:57 PM 0.35ft Low Tide

Full Tide Table for Ft. Ebey Partridge Point.

BLIPSPOT:	14	Oct	2016
VALID.TIME	08:00	09:00	10:00	11:00	12:00	13:00	14:00	15:00	16:00	17:00	18:00	19:00	20:00	VALID.TIME
10M_Wind_Dir	148	146	148	153	157	161	161	159	162	169	182	190	189	10M_Wind_Dir
Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt	16	16	16	15	17	19	19	17	16	15	14	9	7	Sfc_Wind_Sp_Kt
10M_Wind_Sp_Kt	18	17	17	16	18	20	20	19	18	17	15	10	7	10M_Wind_Sp_Kt

If you follow these forecasts, please let me know which one seems to be the more reliable/accurate. They start from the same raw data, but because they use different boundaries they end up with different results. TJ Hours don't always match for GFS and ETA because GFS runs every 6 hours and eta every 12hours
ETA projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, and 1200 UTC
GFS projections are for 6 through 84 hours in advance, from the initial model times of 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800.
Only 60 hour forecasts are reported here. LAMP forecast is updated every three hours.

MM5 forecasts (times on UW generated MM5 forecast graphics are always UTC

For soundings and metograms from other domains, use

TJ's Weather Widget

Point forecasts from NWS for just in front of Ft Ebey

NWS text forecast for Ft Ebey

NWS Meteogram for Ft Ebey

Numbers forecast for Ft Ebey

"Translated" Marine forecast for the water out in front of the Fort. | ORIGINAL

Current winds from the ferrys

RASP FORECAST SURFACE MAPS Small Animated loop

Full scale maps: 8AM | 9AM | 10AM | 11AM | noon | 1PM | 2PM | 3PM | 4PM | 5PM | 6PM | 7PM | 8PM
(when available)
Windcasts for the next few hours:
1st

From http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/sew.php#tabs

's Western Washington Forecast graphics for surface level pressure, temperature, and 10M winds SLP 1.3km resolution
6hr 11 o'clock	9hr 2 o'clock	12hr 5 o'clock	15hr 8 o'clock	18hr 11 o'clock	21hr 2 o'clock	24hr 5 o'clock	27hr 8 o'clock
Whether it is AM or PM depends on when the most recent run was completed. current 5 maps on one page.
< href="uw13kmsfcwind_18.html" title="UW 18-15 "> ahead 12hrs 5 maps on one page.
ahead 24hrs 7 maps
Link to all available UW 1.3km forecast maps.

MM5 Time Heights for Whidbey NAS KNUW 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)

MM5 Time Heights for Friday Harbor 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)

MM5 Time Heights for Victoria BC 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)

MM5 Time Heights for Vancouver BC CYVR 4km domain (Forecast soundings over time.)

Fort Ebey 48.23N -122.73W elev. 95ft Graphical 48hrs (click here or scroll down)
Port Angeles RUC Meteogram from FSL
Canadian Forecast for the East end of Straight of Juan de Fuca
All BC Marine Forecasts including Juan de Fuca and Haro Strait
48 hour Digital forecasts for Fort Ebey: On the water || On land

Most recent METARs
Oak Harbor weather camera for sky conditions.
Port Townsend weather camera -- Can be pointed at the Ft. Ebey Baker preset includes most.
Quick pictures of Wind on Ferry routes

Get Ferry Wind picture between Anacortes and San Juan Islands

Get Ferry Wind picture between Port Townsend Keystone Whidbey Island

The official version of ferry winds

View Larger Map
Direct Links to Current Observations
Current and recent Smith Island Observations 48.32 N 122.84 W National Data Bouy network
Marrowstone bouy right off the Ft Flagler Pennsula
Fort Worden bouy East of Port Townsend
MesoWest
Table of mesowest stations within 50 miles of Ft. Ebey
Current Whidbey NAS observations 48.22�N, 122.76�W
Oak Harbor Air Park 48.2500�N, 122.6667�W
Near Joeseph Whidbey State Park 48.3067�N, 122.6772�W
Bouy 46088 In water WSW of Ft. Ebey LAT: 48.3 LON -123.2
Race Rocks Bouy Even further West.
Port Townsend
Victoria Automatic station just East of Victoria
Langley Wa, South Whidbey Island

Launch code graphical presentation of MOS GFS/AVN and ETA/NAM data

Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS ETA/NAM guidance for KNUW
Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS GFS/AVN guidance for KNUW

Pretty Launch Code Graphical version of MOS GFS/AVN guidance for SISW1 Smith Island --- !!! They started doing it!! Thanks Mark!

Near Keystone Ferry Weather site. Lat:48.177� Lon:-122.642� Elevation: 120 ft

West Oceanfront Whidbey, Coupeville, WA
Partridge Point, Coupeville, WA (may be dead)
Crockett Lake, Coupeville, WA
Direct Links to MOS guidance forecasts:

For full explanations of the MOS ETA/NAM and the GFS MOS MAV forecasts.
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml for all MOS text forecasts.
Full Smith Island ETA/NAM forecast
Full Smith Island GFS (AVN/MAV) forecast
Full ETA/NAM forecast MOS Whidbey NAS
Full GFS (AVN/MAV) forecast MOS Whidbey NAS
Full NGM Nested Grid Model MOS guidance Whidbey NAS
Localized Aviation MOS Program (Not available for Smith Island)
Full GFS LAMP for Whidbey NAS -- same stuff, but hourly forecasts and updated every 3 hours instead of 6 or 12...
Meteogram of above from LAMP (Requires Java)
All Nested Grid model forecasts were discontinued Jan 18 2008
List of all meso stations within 30 miles of Smith island
Marine forecast for the water out in front of the Fort.
"Translated" Marine forecast for the water out in front of the Fort. | ORIGINAL

Conversion factors		Enter known speed on right. Click convert.
10 mph →	8.7knots →	16 kph →	4.5 mps
10knots →	11.5 mph →	18.5 kph →	5.14 mps
10 kph →	6.2 mph →	5.4knots →	2.78 mps
1 Meters/second (mps) → 197 feet/minute (fpm)
10 Meters/second (mps) → 36kph → 22.8mph

Point Partridge todays tides
Monthly tides for Point Partridge , light house.
Map with tide links
OA

| Rapid Update soundings for flying sites | NWS normal weather forecasts |

Forecasts
NWS Forecast Whidbey Island
NWS forecast classic format

Pre-set digital forecasts for Flying Sites
New experimental graphical forecast tool
KING 5 TV's most recent video forecast

To Get Digital Forecasts or Topo Maps, TJ's Full Weather Widget
Enter an arbitrary decimal lattitude and longitude (within the continental US for forecast and topo).

Decoding the MOS forecasts:

Aviation (AVN) http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/decodemav.php

and Environmental ETA/NAM (NGM) http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/decodemet.php

DT = Day of the month, denoting the standard 3 or 4 letter station identifier.
HR = Forecast hour, i.e. how many hours from the model run time.
N/X = daytime maximum/nightime minimum surface temperatures.
TMP = surface temperature valid at that hour.
DPT = surface dewpoint valid at that hour.

CLD = forecast categories of total sky cover valid at that hour.
WDR = forecasts of the 10-meter wind direction at the hour, given in tens of degrees.
WSP = forecasts of the 10-meter wind speed at the hour, given in knots.

P06 = probability of precipitation (PoP) during a 6-h period ending at that time.
P12 = PoP during a 12-h period ending at that time.
T06 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 6-hr period ending at the indicated time.
T12 = probability of thunderstorms/conditional probability of severe thunderstorms during the 12-hr period ending at the indicated time.

Q06 = quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 6-h period ending at that time.
Q12 = QPF category for liquid equivalent precipitation amount during a 12-h period ending at the indicated time.
SNW = snow fall categorical forecasts during a 24-h period ending at the indicated time.
CIG = ceiling height categorical forecasts at the hour.

Cloud (CLD) Categories
ABBREV	MAV/ETA/NGM octa=1/8 of sky	AVN/GFS/MET
CL	clear	0/10 of opaque clouds
SC	scattered > 0 to 4 octas	1/10 to 5/10 of opaque clouds
BK	broken > 4 to < 8 octas	6/10 to 9/10 of opaque clouds
OV	overcast	10/10 of opaque clouds or totally obscured
XX	MISSING	Missing

MAV Ceiling Height Categories
1	< 200 feet
2	200 - 400 feet
3	500 - 900 feet
4	1000 - 1900 feet
5	2000 - 3000 feet
6	3100 - 6500 feet
7	6600 - 12,000 feet
8	> 12,000 feet or unlimited ceiling

MAV Visibility (VIS) Categories
1	1/2 mile or less
2	more than 1/2 - or less than 1 mile
3	1 mile - less than 2
4	2 - less than 3 miles
5	3 - 5 miles
6	6 miles
7	Vis is > 6 miles

QPF Liquid	QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS: QPF CATEGORIES MAV and MET
0	no precipitation
1	0.01 to 0.09 inches
2	0.10 to 0.24 inches
3	0.25 to 0.49 inches
4	0.50 to 0.99 inches
5	1.00 to 1.99 inches
6	2.00 inches or greater

Ebey Watchers?

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